[HCI Market Brief] Week 42, 2025 Global Battery Supply Chain & Logistics Report

2025-10-13 ~ 10-19 | HCI Market Breif by 최호순

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OPEN AI'S DALL.E.

1. Market Context

Tight global monetary policy and persistently high interest rates have raised auto financing costs, dampening EV purchase sentiment and pressuring OEMs’ sales targets. In August 2025, global EV sales growth slowed to +15% YoY, the lowest monthly pace this year (Rho Motion via Reuters).On the supply side, battery raw materials such as lithium have corrected sharply from 2022 peaks and now trade in a volatility regime that is highly sensitive to mine and policy headlines (see Section 2).

Geopolitics and policy risks remain elevated. In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on certain Chinese anode-grade activated graphite (final ruling due Dec 2025) (Reuters). China continues to control exports of key minerals, adding uncertainty to the supply chain. In ocean freight, there is renewed optimism about Red Sea risk easing, but most observers expect a lag before routes normalize (Oct 9 report, Reuters). The Panama Canal reported a 19% YoY increase in transits for FY2025 (through Sept 30), indicating recovery, but drought/water-level risks still warrant ongoing monitoring (Reuters).

2. Lithium Market Analysis

In August 2025, CATL’s Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi announced at least a three-month production halt due to mining-right expiration, triggering an immediate market reaction. The mine accounts for an estimated ~3% of global lithium output (Mining.com).

Following the news, Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit-up for two consecutive sessions, up about 9%, and more than 27% since early August (Reuters). However, underlying demand remained soft; exchanges moved to curb speculative excess (e.g., tighter limits for non-members).

With tighter enforcement against disorderly mining and selected local mine pressures in China, short-term supply headlines can keep swings elevated. Yet inventories and new capacity argue against a durable trend reversal; consensus sees range-bound/boxed prices near term. Fastmarkets noted the move looked more speculative than fundamental (Reuters). Separately, some houses (e.g., Goldman Sachs, cited by Devere Group) see scope for lithium carbonate to approach ~$11,000/t by late 2025 (Devere Group).

Strategic Implications

• Diversify supply: expand long-term offtake with stable producers (Australia, South America, Africa); hedge China-specific risks.

• Price policy: combine monthly/quarterly tranches with index-linked spread caps.

• Controls: stress-test inventory ceilings and safety-stock rules for speculative spikes.

3. Global EV Market Trends

August global EV (BEV+PHEV) sales rose +15% YoY, confirming slower momentum (Reuters). Europe shows pockets of rebound as incentives/registrations normalize (e.g., Germany Sep EV registrations +31.9%), while North America growth is only modest amid tax-credit adjustments (various Reuters dispatches).Key Q4 watch-items: (1) EU tariff/subsidy policy, (2) intensity of China’s domestic promotions, (3) final IRA rules in North America.

Strategic Implications

• Operate flex with demand volatility: order-linked production and adjustable lead times.

• For Europe, align quarter-end shipments to country-specific incentive calendars.

• For North America, tighten IRA-compliant sourcing documentation and origin-risk controls.

4. Logistics & Risk Analysis

Drewry WCI (week of Oct 2) printed $1,669/FEU, –5% WoW, far below pandemic peaks and broadly stable at a low plateau (drewry.co.uk).The Red Sea has seen improving headlines, but the base case still assumes a verification period before full resumption (Reuters). The Panama Canal is recovering in throughput, yet capacity adjustments tied to water levels remain a standing risk (Reuters).

Strategic Implications

• Build contract flexibility: WCI-linked formulas, spot parallel, and banded caps/floors.

• Network diversification: assume +10–14 days buffer for Red Sea/Suez routings in conservative scenarios.

• Insurance/clauses: ensure war/contingent perils coverage and explicit detour-cost provisions.

5. Raw-Material Price Snapshot (early October)

• Nickel (LME 3M): $15,350/t (Oct 8); range-bound in recent weeks (westmetall.com / LME).

• Cobalt (spot): $32,965/t on the latest monthly print; –0.9% MoM, +22.9% YoY (IMF primary, via YCharts).

• Manganese Sulfate (battery-grade, China EXW): ~$757–$857/t (posted range, Metal.com).

• Lithium Carbonate (China spot): 73,550 CNY/t (Sept 30), –7.7% 1-month (Trading Economics).

• Spodumene (6% Li₂O, CIF China): priced off Fastmarkets indices with monthly settlement conventions (use FM/CME for exacts; license-controlled).

Operations & Procurement – Quick Actions

• Defend volatility with staggered lithium/nickel procurement plus index-linked hedging.

• For Red Sea/Suez routes, keep conservative lead-time buffers and buffer stock.

• Track origin/policy risks (graphite duties, IRA rules) and pre-lock alternate sourcing routes (Reuters and official notices).

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※  The report is based on reputable public sources and market analysis and is intended solely as reference material to support strategic decisions in sales and marketing. The information reflects conditions as of the time of writing, and additional review and verification are recommended before applying it to actual business decisions.

Sources (prioritizing latest primary/pro trade data)

• Drewry WCI (week of 2025-10-02): $1,669/FEU — drewry.co.uk

• Rho Motion via Reuters (2025-09-12): Aug 2025 global EV sales +15% YoY — Reuters

• LME / Westmetall: Nickel (Oct 8) — westmetall.com

• YCharts (IMF Primary Commodity): Cobalt latest monthly — YCharts

• Metal.com: Battery-grade MnSO₄ EXW (China) — Metal.com

• Trading Economics: China spot lithium carbonate (Sept 30) — TradingEconomics.com

• Fastmarkets / CME: Spodumene CIF China pricing methodology and settlement

• Reuters / Politico Pro: U.S. preliminary AD 93.5% on Chinese activated graphite (July 17) — Reuters

• Reuters: Red Sea normalization expectations (Oct 9) — Reuters

• Reuters: Panama Canal FY2025 transits (Oct 8) — Reuters