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[HCI Market Brief] Global Battery & Logistics Market Analysis WK36

  • Writer: HOSOON CHOI
    HOSOON CHOI
  • Aug 31
  • 4 min read

2025-09-01 ~ 09-07 | HCI Market Brief by 최호순

This image was generated by Open AI's DALL.E.
This image was generated by Open AI's DALL.E.

1. Market Background


Global macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics are exerting complex influences on battery raw material supply, EV (electric vehicle) demand, and logistics flows. With global monetary tightening keeping interest rates at elevated levels, consumer financing burdens for auto purchases have increased, weakening EV purchase sentiment and delaying OEMs’ sales targets (Reuters). GM and Honda, for instance, canceled their joint affordable EV project and shifted to a more conservative “production aligned with demand” strategy.


Meanwhile, battery raw material prices that once soared are now under downward pressure as EV demand growth slows. Lithium has dropped 67% from its 2022 peak, and cobalt by more than 20%, as supply continues to outpace demand (Reuters).


Geopolitical risks have also intensified. In July 2025, the U.S. government announced a 93.5% anti-dumping tariff on Chinese graphite, while China tightened export controls on graphite and other critical minerals (Carbon Credits). This has raised concerns over higher procurement costs and supply delays, pushing the industry to diversify supply sources. Policy risks are also evident: the U.S. IRA EV tax credit is set to be curtailed earlier than expected, and the EU launched a subsidy probe into Chinese EVs. Added to this are supply chain disruptions stemming from Red Sea instability and Panama Canal drought, reinforcing market uncertainty.


2. Lithium Market Analysis


In August 2025, CATL suspended operations for at least three months at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province due to an expired mining license. The mine accounts for about 3% of global lithium output, fueling supply shock concerns (Mining.com).


Following the announcement, lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou exchange surged by two consecutive daily limits (+9%), rising over 27% since early August (Reuters). However, actual demand remains weak, and speculative trading is widely cited as the main driver. The exchange even imposed non-member trading caps to cool down excessive speculation.


China’s crackdown on over-mining in Yichun adds further pressure on supply in the short term. Yet, with inventory levels still high, many analysts caution against interpreting this rally as a long-term reversal. Fastmarkets noted the recent spike is “more speculative volatility than fundamental recovery” (Reuters).


👉 Strategic Implications:

  • Diversify supply (Australia, South America) to reduce reliance on single sources

  • During price peaks: hedge and build inventories; during troughs: renegotiate long-term contracts

  • Establish a flexible procurement and cost management system to mitigate volatility


3. Global EV Market Trends


In July 2025, global EV (BEV+PHEV) sales reached 1.6 million units, up 21% YoY — the lowest monthly growth rate this year. China, the largest market, sold ~1 million units (+12%), dragging down the global rate. Europe grew strongly with 390,000 units (+48%), while North America lagged at 170,000 units (+10%). Emerging markets contributed ~140,000 units (+55%) (Reuters).


Cumulative sales (Jan–Jul 2025) reached 10.7 million units (+27%), with China at 6.5 million (+29%), Europe at 2.3 million (+30%), and emerging markets at 0.9 million (+42%). North America stagnated at ~1.0 million units (+2%) (Electric Cars Report).


👉 Strategic Implications:

  • China: Q3 subsidy resumption likely to drive recovery in late 2025

  • Europe: Sustained growth supported by expanded incentives

  • North America: IRA tax credit cuts (end-September) may trigger short-term demand spike followed by slowdown

  • Corporate Response: LG Energy Solution is evaluating ESS line conversion; GM and Ford emphasize profitability management (Reuters)


4. Logistics Rates & Risk Analysis


As of August 28, 2025, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) stood at USD 2,119 per 40ft container, down 6% WoW and marking the 11th straight week of declines (Freshplaza). Route breakdown: Shanghai–Rotterdam USD 2,661 (–10%), Shanghai–Genoa USD 2,842 (–5%), Shanghai–LA USD 2,332 (–3%), and Shanghai–NY USD 3,291 (–5.3%). Compared to pandemic highs, rates are down over 60%.


Key Risk Factors:

  • Red Sea conflict: Houthi rebel attacks resumed in July 2025, disrupting Suez-bound shipping and pushing up insurance and lead times (S&P Global).

  • Panama Canal drought: Severe low water levels cut daily vessel transits to 22 at one point, leading to rerouting and higher transport costs (Reuters, Cronkite News).


👉 Strategic Implications:

  • Negotiate flexible freight contracts (index-linked, spot inclusion, capped escalation clauses)

  • Diversify routes and hold buffer stocks to manage disruption risks

  • Strengthen insurance and surcharge clauses to mitigate sudden geopolitical or climate-driven costs


📌 References


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※ This report has been prepared based on credible public sources and market analysis, and is intended to serve as a reference to support your strategic decision-making. The information provided reflects conditions at the time of preparation, and additional review and verification are recommended before applying it to actual business decisions.



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